Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall
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The new week begins with the oil price rising, again, as the stalled US-Iran peace talks threaten to extend disruption to crude supplies from the Middle East.
Brent crude has jumped about 2% this morning to a high of $107.97 a barrel, the highest level since the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 7 April.
Prices rose after Donald Trump cancelled his plan to send US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for ceasefire talks in Pakistan on Saturday, saying “too much time” has been “wasted on travelling”.
The US president then doubled down on this position, telling Fox News:
“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines.”
However, there are signs of positive developments… Axios are reporting that Tehran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the strait of Hormuz, and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later date.
So, geopolitics will continue to dominate the markets, at the start of a big week, with several big central banks taking interest rates decisions in the days ahead.
As Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, explains:
Talks have stalled between US and Iran as Iran has stated that it will not negotiate till the US blockade remains in place, while US has stated that it doesn’t know who it is negotiating with.
Our base case remains that we are moving towards a deal but tail risk of short term escalation remains. It is not in the interest of either parties to escalate further. The latest Iran proposal shows the wiliness of Iran to negotiate, while Trump already wants a deal. Hence, we believe that we will eventually move towards a deal, but with some speed bumps along the way.
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China blocks Meta’s $2bn acquisition of AI startup Manus
Newsflash: Beijing has decided to block Meta Platforms from aquiring agentic AI startup Manus in a $2bn deal.
China’s state planner has prohibited foreign acquisition of Chinese artificial intelligence startup Manus, ordering involved parties to cancel the transaction, the National Development and Reform Commission said on Monday (via Reuters).
The deal had caused controversy in China, sparking claims that it was an attempt to hollow out the country’s technology base,
Last year, Forbes called Manus “a revolutionary AI agent capable of independent thought and action”, saying:
Manus is not just another chatbot, nor is it merely an improved search engine dressed in futuristic branding. It is the world’s first fully autonomous AI agent, a system that doesn’t just assist humans — it replaces them
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