Top US AI developers Anthropic and OpenAI cheered when Australia announced it would set new AI rules.
Big tech celebrating limits on their Silicon Valley VC-funded free-for-all might seem counterintuitive but there’s a much broader play than just what happens in one relatively small market.
Anthropic and OpenAI aren’t even on sharemarkets yet but this week lost billions in predicted value after being shown up by a Chinese startup.
Moonshot AI on Friday launched a new model, Kimi K3, advertising it as the first open-source model of its size, allowing more user modification than Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Analysts are judging K3 is competitive with both the leading US models, which are also less freely customisable. Moonshot had to temporarily pause new subscriptions after demand for the new model strained capacity.
Implied values for Anthropic’s sharemarket debut has slumped US$232bn to $1.56tn from Friday to Tuesday on IG’s trading platform. OpenAI dropped US$160bn to $1.16tn.
The two companies are still privately owned and valued at less than US$1tn each, so IG’s numbers are market bets, not true values.
But they hope to follow in the footsteps of SpaceX, which raised $86bn and soared to a $2.1tn valuation after it listed on public markets in June.
Anthropic has already begun registering to list on US sharemarkets, which would allow it to raise billions from new investors. The better the story it can tell, the more money it can raise.
Chinese competition does not make for a good story. Nor do surprise lawsuits from unhappy creatives, such as the one Anthropic had to settle for US$1.5bn on Monday (Tuesday AEST).
The company will pay authors about US$3,000 for each of an estimated 500,000 books covered by the settlement.
One of the authors whose work Anthropic scraped was Andrew Charlton, Australia’s assistant technology minister. Charlton says the new regulation will mean Australian creatives can choose whether AI models are trained on their work and big tech companies will have to pay them.
Yet those new rules could be a boon to big tech, Charlton says.
“If we are upfront with what we expect in this Australian standard, we can give clarity to investors that in some ways enhances the attractiveness of Australia,” he told Sky News on Monday.
Malik Ahmed Khan, an equity analyst at Morningstar Equity, says technology companies would find it much easier to invest in Australia as they learn where regulation is heading.
The companies will also have an easier job convincing investors to buy in at high prices if they can show they’re focusing on building AI and managing the risk of running afoul of governments or local laws, Khan says.
While Australia is one of few countries to now be regulating AI directly, with little direct impact on companies based overseas, Anthony Albanese hopes to set the global tone. In his speech…
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