Labor MPs could hardly contain their delight on Monday. Even before today’s start of parliament, the Nationals had debated a leadership spill and Sussan Ley looked firmly on borrowed time.
They cheered Anthony Albanese at a caucus meeting, in which he likened the disorganisation of the Coalition to a messy break-up on reality TV show, Married at First Sight.
But, as the government enters the delivery phase of its second term, the stakes are significantly higher for the prime minister, even with a 94-seat majority and a stable cabinet.
By the time voters next go to the polls – probably sometime in early 2028 – management of 10 key challenges will be critical to the government’s success, and the country’s future.
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One of the main arguments against possible challenger Angus Taylor moving on Ley this week is Tuesday’s cash rate decision from the Reserve Bank. The Liberals want to whack the government with the probable interest rate hike, as cost-of-living pain for households grows. Bringing sticky inflation back to the 2% to 3% target is a make or break challenge.
It is not yet a month since Albanese caved to pressure and announced a royal commission into antisemitism and social cohesion. Commissioner Virginia Bell’s hearings, and a review of intelligence agencies by former Asio boss Dennis Richardson, could reveal security failures which contributed to the tragedy at Bondi beach.
Labor might have missed out on hosting rights for the COP31 summit, but the government is already sweating over meeting its 43% emissions reduction target for 2030, a goal that requires a dramatic increase in the take-up of renewables. Labor has also pledged to cut emissions by between 62% and 70% by 2035, a mammoth task requiring reorientation of the energy system, just as household bills climb and climb.
Donald Trump might have endorsed the Aukus nuclear agreement, but Albanese will still have to deal with the erratic US president’s whims. Labor has signalled it won’t join Trump’s new board of peace, but risks an angry response when the White House is notified. Similarly, managing Australia’s relationship with China will become more challenging amid the realignment of global powers, and the risk of a push by Beijing to retake control of Taiwan.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is already crafting the May budget. With major new spending looming, including Albanese’s ambition for universal childcare, curbing growth in the National Disability Insurance Scheme and aged care will be essential. National cabinet agreed last week to trim NDIS growth to between 5 and 6%, down from the current rate of 9.5%. So far, the path to savings is unclear.
Labor also faces challenges of its own making. There is growing unhappiness within the caucus at the government’s failure to tackle sports betting advertising, and the special minister of state, Don Farrell, wants to expand parliament. In the 40 years since the last expansion, the population…
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