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“it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development.”
That is the central warning in a new paper from Anthropic, which argues that AI is increasingly helping to build newer, more capable systems, raising the possibility of “recursive self-improvement,” a future in which AI systems design and develop their own successors with minimal human involvement.
The company says AI is already accelerating AI development inside Anthropic. It claims that more than 80% of the code merged into its production codebase is now written by Claude, up from low single digits before the launch of Claude Code in 2025. Anthropic also says the typical engineer merged eight times as much code per day in the second quarter of 2026 as in 2024.
AI’s growing role in AI development: Anthropic said the role of human engineers and researchers is shifting from doing technical work to reviewing outputs and deciding which problems are worth solving. “The doing (i.e., writing the code, running the experiment, producing the result) now costs almost nothing in human time,” it wrote.
The company cited internal and public benchmarks to argue that AI systems are becoming capable of handling increasingly complex and longer-duration tasks. It said Claude models progressed from completing software tasks that took humans minutes in 2024 to tasks lasting several hours and, more recently, up to 12 hours.
From coding to research: According to Anthropic, AI systems have also improved rapidly on software engineering and research benchmarks. The company said its latest systems can independently run experiments, propose hypotheses and conduct parts of open-ended research projects, though humans still set goals and evaluate results.
Anthropic acknowledged that a key limitation remains what it called “research taste,” the ability to decide which ideas matter and which directions are worth pursuing. “The comparative advantage of humans as of right now is still in seeing the bigger picture and thinking beyond the confines of the immediate task,” the company said.
The company outlines three possible futures: In the first, progress slows due to technical or infrastructure constraints. In the second, AI increasingly automates development work while humans continue to direct research. In the third, AI systems become capable of full recursive self-improvement and begin building their own successors.
Anthropic says it is most concerned about the second and third scenarios because they could leave governments and societies with little time to adapt. The paper warns that recursive self-improvement could increase the risk of humans losing control over AI systems if alignment and oversight do not keep pace.
Call for coordination and safeguards: The company also raises concerns about governance. It argues that a meaningful pause in advanced AI development would…
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