Every Q4, the same message shows up in our accounts:
“Use seasonality adjustments to get ready for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.”
On paper, it sounds reasonable. You expect conversion rates to rise, so you give Smart Bidding a heads up and tell it to bid more aggressively during the peak.
Optmyzr’s latest study puts a pretty big dent in that narrative.
Over three BFCM cycles from 2022 through 2024, Fred Vallaeys and the Optmyzr team analyzed performance for up to 6,000 advertisers per year, split into two cohorts: those who used seasonality bid adjustments and those who did not.
The question was simple: do these adjustments actually help during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, or are we just making Google bid higher for no meaningful gain?
Based on the data, seasonality adjustments often hurt efficiency and rarely deliver the breakthrough many advertisers expect.
Below is a breakdown of the study and what it means for PPC managers heading into peak season.
Key Findings from Optmyzr’s BFCM Seasonality Study
The study compared performance across three BFCM periods (2022–2024), defined as the Wednesday before Black Friday through the Wednesday after Cyber Monday. Each year’s results were then measured against a pre-BFCM baseline.
The accounts were grouped into:
- Advertisers who did not use seasonality bid adjustments
- Advertisers who did apply them
Across all three years, consistent patterns emerged from their study.
#1: Smart Bidding already adjusts for BFCM without manual prompts
For advertisers who skipped seasonality adjustments, Smart Bidding still responded to the conversion rate spike:
- 2022: Conversion rate up 17.5%
- 2023: Conversion rate up 11.9%
- 2024: Conversion rate up 7.5%
In other words, the algorithm did exactly what it was designed to do. It detected higher intent and increased bids without needing an external nudge.
#2: Seasonality adjustments inflated CPCs far more than necessary
Seasonality adjustments tell Google’s system to raise bids based on your predicted conversion rate increase.
Optmyzr notes that:
When you apply a seasonality adjustment, you are effectively telling Google: ‘I expect conversion rate to increase by X%. Raise bids immediately by X%.
And Smart Bidding acts as if you’re exactly right. It usually doesn’t soften that prediction or test into it.
The study showed that this is why CPCs climbed much faster for advertisers who used adjustments:
CPC inflation (no adjustment vs. with adjustment)
- 2022: +17% vs. +36.7%
- 2023: +16% vs. +32%
- 2024: +17% vs. +34%
Adjustments consistently doubled CPC inflation, even though Smart Bidding was already raising bids based on real-time conversion signals.
#3: ROAS dropped for advertisers using seasonality adjustments
When CPC increases outpace conversion rate increases, ROAS inevitably suffers.
ROAS change (no adjustment vs. with adjustment)
- 2022: -2% vs. -17%
- 2023: -1.5% vs. -10%
- 2024: +5.7% vs. -15.7%
The “no adjustment” group maintained stable…
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