A three-year analysis of up to 6,000 advertisers shows that using Google’s seasonality bid adjustments during Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) consistently harms efficiency — even though the platforms keep recommending them.
The big picture. Smart Bidding’s models are designed to anticipate predictable retail spikes. Optmyzr’s analysis of tens of billions of impressions across 2022–2024 found that advertisers who skipped seasonality adjustments consistently performed better on efficiency metrics.
Without adjustments, Smart Bidding:
- Identified the BFCM conversion lift on its own
- Raised bids rationally
- Kept ROAS stable — even improving it in 2024
With adjustments: CPCs surged much faster than actual conversion rates, eroding efficiency.
Reality check: Google doesn’t need your “heads up”. Seasonality adjustments tell Google: “Expect conversion rate to rise by X% — bid that much harder.”
But Smart Bidding takes this literally. If you guess wrong — and almost everyone does — the system overshoots.
Example:
- You predict +50% CVR lift
- Real lift is +40%
- You’ve effectively overbid by 7.1%
During BFCM’s high volumes, even small gaps get expensive fast.
The data: 3 years of the same story
1. Smart Bidding already catches the CVR spike
- 2022: +17.5%
- 2023: +11.9%
- 2024: +7.5%
No help needed.
2. CPC inflation doubles with adjustments
Across all years, CPCs jumped about 2x higher when advertisers used a seasonal adjustment.
3. ROAS drops significantly
Advertisers who trusted Smart Bidding saw stable or improved ROAS.
Those who intervened saw double-digit drops.
The one exception: “Volume at all costs”. If your marching order is pure revenue growth — margins be damned — seasonality adjustments deliver.
Revenue lift was consistently higher when advertisers used adjustments:
- 2022: +50.5% vs. +25.0%
- 2023: +52.8% vs. +30.3%
- 2024: +39.9% vs. +33.8%
Efficiency tanks, but volume pops.
When seasonality adjustments actually make sense. Use them when Google doesn’t have advance signal — not for global events like BFCM.
Good for:
- One-off flash sales
- Email-only promotions
- Surprise clearance events
- Niche seasonal spikes
Not good for:
- Black Friday
- Cyber Monday
- Christmas
- Valentine’s Day
- Any event with years of predictable history
Why we care. Google already knows it’s Black Friday. Smart Bidding is trained on years of BFCM data and reliably detects the conversion-rate spike on its own. Overriding the system often causes aggressive overbidding, inflated CPCs, and lower ROAS – meaning many marketers are unknowingly burning budget during the most competitive week of the year.
By understanding when Smart Bidding already has the signal, advertisers can avoid costly mistakes, protect efficiency, and reserve seasonality adjustments for moments where they actually…
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