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Every year, I hold myself accountable for my previous predictions by scoring them.

This year, I got three misses, two mixed results, and five hits:

1. Agentic LLM Models Reach +100 Million Users

Score: Miss

Thought Process: When I made this prediction, I assumed that once models improved at reasoning, usage would shift from chat to action, and agents would become the obvious next step.

Reality: While general LLM usage (like Gemini and ChatGPT) cleared +800 million weekly users, true autonomous agent adoption, where the AI performs complex actions like “buying a product” without oversight, remained a niche power-user feature with very wonky performance.

  • Google’s “Project Mariner” and OpenAI’s agent features only entered broad public beta in mid-2025.
  • Most consumers still use AI for information (chat) rather than action (agents).

I over-weighted the speed of productization and user trust, and under-weighted how slow people are to let software spend their money or act without supervision.

2. More AI Victims

Score: Hit

Thought Process: Here, I zoomed out from early signals like Chegg and Stack Overflow and treated them as the first visible cracks in a broader margin collapse. My bet was that whenever AI sits between buyers and a labor-intensive industry, the middle layer will feel the pain first.

Reality: By Q3 2025, major call center outsourcing firms faced a crisis as enterprise clients switched to “AI Voice First” support layers. Translation services continued to shrink as browser-based, real-time AI translation became native to OS updates.

  • In RWS Holdings’ (translation services) 2025 half-year report, Adjusted EBITDA plummeted 41%, and profit before tax fell nearly 60%.
  • Chegg continues to fall apart.
  • In September 2025, Concentrix shares dropped ~9% in a single day after missing earnings expectations and cutting its full-year guidance. Enterprise clients aggressively switched to “AI Voice First” layers. Instead of hiring 100 agents for a support queue, a client might hire 10 agents for complex issues and use an AI voice agent for the rest. This destroyed the traditional “per-seat” billing model that BPOs rely on.

3. AI Automation Becomes The Default For Marketing Teams

Score: Hit

Thought Process: This call came from watching clients quietly stitch together AirOps, Make, Zapier, and custom scripts while headcount stayed flat or shrank. I expected economic pressure plus better tooling to push marketing toward “systems thinking,” where workflows matter more than channels.

Reality: “System building” became the primary skill on marketing job descriptions in 2025.


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Last Update: December 10, 2025