OpenAI’s ChatGPT ads could miss $100 billion revenue target: Report

OpenAI’s ad revenue forecast is on pace to miss its 2030 target by 90%, according to Emarketer.

OpenAI projected $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030. Emarketer estimates the entire U.S. market for standalone chatbot ads will generate less than $1 billion this year and $5.41 billion by 2030.

OpenAI’s target. OpenAI began testing ChatGPT ads in February. By April, the company projected that ad revenue would grow to $100 billion within five years. But that forecast is larger than Emarketer’s 2030 estimate for the full U.S. chatbot ad market.

What Emarketer measured. Emarketer’s estimate covers standalone chatbots in the U.S., including ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Mode and Amazon Alexa for Shopping, formerly Rufus. The research firm’s forecast puts the 2030 market ceiling at $5.41 billion, far below OpenAI’s target for its ad business alone.

Why we care. Chatbot ads are still a small market, despite growing interest in AI search and shopping. The gap between OpenAI’s target and Emarketer’s forecast shows ChatGPT Ads have a long way to go.

Assumptions vs. reality? OpenAI’s forecast assumes the company will capture search ad budgets at scale, dominate a mature chatbot ad market, and outperform every ad format in history, Adweek reported. Emarketer’s data points to a much smaller market.

Search Engine Land is owned by Semrush. We remain committed to providing high-quality coverage of marketing topics. Unless otherwise noted, this page’s content was written by either an employee or a paid contractor of Semrush Inc.

Danny Goodwin is Editorial Director of Search Engine Land & Search Marketing Expo – SMX. He joined Search Engine Land in 2022 as Senior Editor. In addition to reporting on the latest search marketing news, he manages Search Engine Land’s SME (Subject Matter Expert) program. He also helps program U.S. SMX events.

Goodwin has been editing and writing about the latest developments and trends in search and digital marketing since 2007. He previously was Executive Editor of Search Engine Journal (from 2017 to 2022), managing editor of Momentology (from 2014-2016) and editor of Search Engine Watch (from 2007 to 2014). He has spoken at many major search conferences and virtual events, and has been sourced for his expertise by a wide range of publications and podcasts.

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