Organic search traffic is down just 2.5% year over year — nowhere near the 25% to 60% drops often cited in industry commentary. That’s one big takeaway from a new large-scale analysis by Graphite using Similarweb data from more than 40,000 of the largest U.S. websites.
This finding challenges the idea that generative AI tools like ChatGPT are rapidly replacing traditional search and gutting SEO.
What’s happening. Surveys, anecdotes, and case studies have fueled claims that organic traffic has collapsed and large language models are pulling demand away from search engines. Graphite’s data tells a different story.
- Using Similarweb visit data, the study compared organic search traffic to the top 40,000 U.S. sites from February to December 2024 and January to November 2025. The result was a modest decline, not a dramatic one.
- Google’s statements support this view. In August 2025, the company said total organic click volume from Google Search was “relatively stable year over year.”
By the numbers. Traffic trends vary by site size. The largest sites, including the top 10, grew organic traffic by about 1.6%. Declines were concentrated among mid-sized publishers ranked roughly between the top 100 and 10,000.
- Organic SEO traffic: -2.5% YoY
- Search engine traffic overall (2025): +0.4%
- Google traffic (2025): +0.8%
- Organic vs. paid clicks: ~90% organic, ~10% ads
- AI Overview CTR impact: -35% when present
- AI Overview prevalence: ~30% of SERPs
AI Overviews: impact, not collapse. AI Overviews do reduce click-through rates when they appear, but their reach is smaller than many assume.
- AI Overviews appear in about 30% of queries, mostly informational ones.
- Commercial and transactional keywords are far less affected.
Google ads aren’t “stealing” organic clicks. Another common claim is that Google is shifting traffic from organic results to paid ads. The data shows only a modest change.
- The share of clicks going to ads rose by about two percentage points.
- Organic results still generate roughly 10 times more clicks than paid placements.
Why we care. SEO is still a massive channel. AI is changing how results appear and how users interact with information, but demand for search hasn’t collapsed. The real shift is that SEO is fragmenting. There are more SERP features, more AI-driven answers, and more competition for fewer clicks on informational queries. Strategy now matters more than ever.
About the data. The analysis uses Similarweb traffic estimates for more than 40,000 of the largest U.S. websites. These estimates combine opt-in user panels, ISP and mobile carrier data, public web signals, and direct measurement from participating sites to model visits and traffic sources at scale. To validate accuracy, Graphite compared Similarweb trends with first-party Google Search Console and Google Analytics data across multiple sites and found a median correlation of…
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